Northern Ireland - A Blueprint for the rest of the world?

Bertie Ahern has called the next Dail election for 24th May. Based on the latest opinion polls the Government is likely to be comprised of some form of coalition government as no party in Ireland no longer has enough support to form a single party government. I would find it very unlikely that Fianna Fail will ever find themselves in a position whereby they have a majority of the elected TDs again. Irish voters like coalition, in my opinion, as it provides a balance within the corridors of power by not allowing one party to act as supreme overlords.
Here in Northern Ireland we are about to embark on an enforced coalition whereby the four main parties, with about 90% of the elected Stormont MLAs, form a government where positions are allocated in accordance with their success in the elections.

In advance of this Government actually taking up office on May 8th there has been a remarkable change in the relations between the parties in Northern Ireland, especially between the DUP and Sinn Fein. As well as Sinn Fein signing up to the policing boards, we have seen the DUP sidetrack the issue of the existence of the IRA Army Council as a bar to forming the Government. Martin McGuinness speaks in a Sunday Tribune interview of positive, courteous meetings with Ian Paisley and speaks of his admiration for Dr. Paisley having stood by his principles, although obviously he did not agree with them.

As well as new working relations (and the bulk of the ministries) being shared by the DUP and Sinn Fein, the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, despite their electoral disappointments of the last few years, will also have a part to play in this coalition Government. Depending on the success of their Ministers, and the exposure that their portfolios might bring them, they may hope to use the opportunities provided to help rebuild their parties. Being seen as successful within a Government department, or committee, especially as when the next elections arrive all the parties involved could be pushing manifestos which would be broadly in the centre and less to the extremes, might be seen as giving some hope to the UU and SDLP that they can now rebuild their support base. They will of course argue that the current positions of the DUP and SF are exactly those of their parties in the past.

All the positives ahead of the return of the devolved Government at Stormont do make me wonder if a form of imposed coalition is the best way to govern a country. Maybe in the future, in the context of the UK and Ireland, it should be mandatory that a government could only be formed from parties which command at least 60% of the elected representatives. This would mean in the context of the forthcoming election that a possible coalition between FF/Labour/SF or FG/Green/PD/Labour/SF/Ind.
The reason for this suggestion would be to try and engage voters in elections and politics generally. As one party would be very unlikely to ever achieve 60%, coalition would be almost certainly guaranteed. Positions would be allocated, like here, in relation to election success, but would mean more parties being involved in Government. Policies would be negotiated as per norm, but with an input from more parties, leading to a more interesting mix of policies - PD right wing ideals diluted by Labour's socialist leanings for example. As well as involving more of a mix of individuals in positions of power it might also give more prominence to the parties not involved in the government as the voice of the opposition, maybe giving it a greater chance to get its message across. In effect Alliance must be the opposition party of the Stormont assembly, with the duty of holding it to account for its decisions, which in effect would give their spoke persons the chance to debate matters on local TV and radio, in the process raising both party and individual profiles.

I think it would apply better to the last Westminster elections of 2005 where Labour, under Tony Blair, won 55.2% of the seats in the first past the post system with 35.3% of the first preference vote. Despite the unpopularity of the war in Iraq Labour won in part due to the even more mistrust of the Conservative Party. In effect two thirds of the population find themselves governed by a party they did not vote for. The 60% rule would have allowed Labour to form a government after the 2001 election, but in 2005 would have forced them into a coalition with possibly the Lib Dems. This might have assured that checks and balances were in place to police Labour policy, especially in relation to divisive issues like the management of the war in Iraq and investment in the NHS. It might also have allowed a junior Government party to be able to comment better on the cash for honours question and hold people accountable, if required. Such a forced partnership might help to counteract a certain indifference in a electorate feeling disenfranchised from being able to exercise influence on their Government, while still allowing the Tories to rebuild and re brand under Cameron.

Maybe Northern Ireland have the right idea after all, by forcing people to work together, - but time will tell.