Northern Ireland - A Blueprint for the rest of the world?

Bertie Ahern has called the next Dail election for 24th May. Based on the latest opinion polls the Government is likely to be comprised of some form of coalition government as no party in Ireland no longer has enough support to form a single party government. I would find it very unlikely that Fianna Fail will ever find themselves in a position whereby they have a majority of the elected TDs again. Irish voters like coalition, in my opinion, as it provides a balance within the corridors of power by not allowing one party to act as supreme overlords.
Here in Northern Ireland we are about to embark on an enforced coalition whereby the four main parties, with about 90% of the elected Stormont MLAs, form a government where positions are allocated in accordance with their success in the elections.

In advance of this Government actually taking up office on May 8th there has been a remarkable change in the relations between the parties in Northern Ireland, especially between the DUP and Sinn Fein. As well as Sinn Fein signing up to the policing boards, we have seen the DUP sidetrack the issue of the existence of the IRA Army Council as a bar to forming the Government. Martin McGuinness speaks in a Sunday Tribune interview of positive, courteous meetings with Ian Paisley and speaks of his admiration for Dr. Paisley having stood by his principles, although obviously he did not agree with them.

As well as new working relations (and the bulk of the ministries) being shared by the DUP and Sinn Fein, the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, despite their electoral disappointments of the last few years, will also have a part to play in this coalition Government. Depending on the success of their Ministers, and the exposure that their portfolios might bring them, they may hope to use the opportunities provided to help rebuild their parties. Being seen as successful within a Government department, or committee, especially as when the next elections arrive all the parties involved could be pushing manifestos which would be broadly in the centre and less to the extremes, might be seen as giving some hope to the UU and SDLP that they can now rebuild their support base. They will of course argue that the current positions of the DUP and SF are exactly those of their parties in the past.

All the positives ahead of the return of the devolved Government at Stormont do make me wonder if a form of imposed coalition is the best way to govern a country. Maybe in the future, in the context of the UK and Ireland, it should be mandatory that a government could only be formed from parties which command at least 60% of the elected representatives. This would mean in the context of the forthcoming election that a possible coalition between FF/Labour/SF or FG/Green/PD/Labour/SF/Ind.
The reason for this suggestion would be to try and engage voters in elections and politics generally. As one party would be very unlikely to ever achieve 60%, coalition would be almost certainly guaranteed. Positions would be allocated, like here, in relation to election success, but would mean more parties being involved in Government. Policies would be negotiated as per norm, but with an input from more parties, leading to a more interesting mix of policies - PD right wing ideals diluted by Labour's socialist leanings for example. As well as involving more of a mix of individuals in positions of power it might also give more prominence to the parties not involved in the government as the voice of the opposition, maybe giving it a greater chance to get its message across. In effect Alliance must be the opposition party of the Stormont assembly, with the duty of holding it to account for its decisions, which in effect would give their spoke persons the chance to debate matters on local TV and radio, in the process raising both party and individual profiles.

I think it would apply better to the last Westminster elections of 2005 where Labour, under Tony Blair, won 55.2% of the seats in the first past the post system with 35.3% of the first preference vote. Despite the unpopularity of the war in Iraq Labour won in part due to the even more mistrust of the Conservative Party. In effect two thirds of the population find themselves governed by a party they did not vote for. The 60% rule would have allowed Labour to form a government after the 2001 election, but in 2005 would have forced them into a coalition with possibly the Lib Dems. This might have assured that checks and balances were in place to police Labour policy, especially in relation to divisive issues like the management of the war in Iraq and investment in the NHS. It might also have allowed a junior Government party to be able to comment better on the cash for honours question and hold people accountable, if required. Such a forced partnership might help to counteract a certain indifference in a electorate feeling disenfranchised from being able to exercise influence on their Government, while still allowing the Tories to rebuild and re brand under Cameron.

Maybe Northern Ireland have the right idea after all, by forcing people to work together, - but time will tell.

Want to Live Forever - Become an MLA

A Mr. Alec Holden from Surrey picked up his winnings from bookmaker William Hill, which gave him odds of 250/1 that he would live to 100 years. Alec placed a £100 bet on himself reaching that milestone 10 years ago.
So I got to thinking should I place a similar bet on myself? But to understand my chances I have to look at the reasons Alec has reached the milestone of 100 years. He put it down to eating porridge every morning and remembering to keep breathing. He said it was also important not to worry about anything, do as little work as possible, and go on lots of holidays.

Having gathered all this information I applied Alec's principles to my lifestyle to analyse my chances of living another 60 or so years. Porridge - that's OK. Now I know why my mother used to feed us porridge every morning when we were young. I have not taken it as much in recent years, but I could easily make that change again - we are off to a good start.

Breathing - Alec's left us a handy tip there, but a little unnecessary. I think I've got the breathing down to a fine art - maybe a little meditation to get those good deep breaths would increase my chances.

So far its all going well and I feel a trip to the bookies coming on.

But........the not worry bit. Now I don't know circumstances of Alec's life, but holding down a challenging job in the private sector is not worry (or stress) free. Add to that the Building Society who demand their mortgage payment every month, the rates, the electric, running a car (have you seen price of fuel) and of course a wife and I fail miserably on Alec's "don't worry" lifestyle. While I try to do as little work as possible it not always easy to bluff the boss and I am only getting the minimum holidays from work so I fail that test also.

So I have decided that taking a punt on my reaching 100 might be a bad bet and I will not be backing myself - but I will keep it under review. But I looked at who might be a good candidate to reach 100 and came up with the perfect profile.

On Alec's basis of no worry, little work and plenty of holidays I am looking at anyone who was elected to the Stormont Assembly in the 2003 election. After all they did no work, got paid a huge salary (which I am sure left them worry free) and the holidays were never ending.
All I need to find out now is how many of them take porridge for breakfast and I am off the the bookie shop with my slip.

SLOW DOWN THERE LADS!!!!


SDLP members in Crotlieve want to reduce the speed limit in certain parts of the area from 30mph to 20mph. To this end they have submitted a motion to Newry and Mourne Council for their support on this issue and are hopeful of getting the unanimous support of their fellow Councillors.

Now while I am all in favour of traffic calming measures in built up areas, or near schools, I feel that a reduction in the speed limit is a ridiculous suggestion. People who tend to break the speed limit will not reduce their speed because the legal limit has changed. Better to install speed ramps in areas of particular concern rather than stick a different number on a pole. Or maybe even encourage the police to take their speed detection equipment to roads that have genuine problems re speed, related to the condition of the road or size of residential area, than what seems to be their current policy of positioning their cameras at the end of a dual carriageway where the speed limit suddenly reduces to 30mph, even though it is possible with care to drive a little faster. It might prove that the PSNI are more interested in road safety than revenue generation from traffic branch.

Karen McKevitt of the SDLP identified Milltown Street in Burren and Ballyholland Road as areas that concerned her. If Road Service are unable to install speed ramps, rather than reduced speed limits, while does her party just not propose a ban on cars in these areas. Maybe she would like to make it compulsory that people only use bicycles on these roads, or better still why not the traditional horse and cart - it would give people the opportunity to car(t) share and its much more environmentally friendly. That Henry Ford has a lot to answer for.

It would appear that this may be a gimmick to show to their local areas that, while they are unable to convince Road Service to put speed prevention measures in these places, at least they are acting on it by getting a few signs changed. The only people who will observe the 20mph speed limit are the same ones who would observe 30mph - the speeders won't change their habits.
And the message to all the speed freaks and boy racers is - a tree never hits an automobile except in self defense.

ONE RULE FOR ALL?

Last night as I lay dreaming.....ahh I felt a song coming on. But in my mind I have, in my time, imagined myself as the Irish heavyweight champion, and if I keep consuming cakes and chocolate at my current rate I easily make the weight, taking on Rocky (and I'm still younger than him) for the World title and defeating him to bring glory to my land.
But in order to prepare for the fight I need an easy warm up fight, an opponent I can easily beat. And my local advisors, PJ Bradley (SDLP) and Mick Murphy (SF) suggest I look at the US immigration department. They have been alerted to this potential adversary by their support for the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform (ILIR), a body which is trying to get official status for the estimated 50,000 "undocumented" Irish living and working in the US. As these people do not have Green cards to work legally in the US they are unable to travel home as it would prove very difficult to re-enter again. As well as this inability to return home on holiday they also risk capture by the Immigration service and being deported, they cannot get social security numbers or a US driving licence. The Irish Government have weighed in also to help finance the ILIR campaign by donating monies to help their campaign of lobbying the US Government to look at the possibility of legalising the status of these individuals living in this twilight world.
So as I prepared to head into the ring with the US Immigration Service I felt very confident. After all my Irish heart was beating, wondering why any nation would deny any rights to my fellow countrymen. I was ready to batter this opponent to pieces. And yet......

As my mentors held up the ropes for me to enter the ring a strange feeling washed over me. What if I was standing in the Immigration's shoes. What if every nation that has illegal immigrants living here, either in the UK or Ireland, were to say to me please legalise their status and allow them to live here without threat of deportation would I be so understanding? As I looked into my heart I would have to say that the answer would be no. Here in the Newry area I have seen the very positive, under rated and under appreciated, efforts of members of the Polish and Lithuanian community have made to the economic success and growth of the community at large in the last few years. There is no doubt that some companies would not have grown (maybe some not have survived) without this available workforce from Eastern Europe. I would also hope that some will put down roots here long term as cultural diversity is very welcome in a growing region.

And yet I am mindful of the fact that when Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU restrictions were placed on the ability of its citizens to take up work here. Immigration should probably be limited to that necessary to allow the economic growth of a country. I do not think that any country should have totally unrestricted immigration, as I think that would allow an underworld of exploitation to develop and grow. So while of course I feel sympathy for the plight of the illegal Irish in the US, I have to recognise the right of the US, as well as the UK, Ireland or any other country to have rules re the access of people to their country looking for work.
So as the bell rang my opponent landed the knock out blow and I had no fight to offer.
As I hit the floor I saw stars (and stripes maybe!!!!) - terrible pun (could not resist)

An example to us all

So we have the spectacle of two former bitter rivals, whose previous trenchant positions divided a nation, facing up to the task of working together for the better good of their supporters. They had split because one felt that he was being mistreated and discriminated against by having to endure conditions of a lower standard than the norm. They face the possibility of great success in the next few weeks, or will their commmunity face more disappointment? There is also the possibility of great finances being available from external sources if that success is achieved. Sound familiar.
Well its Sunderland FC where former rivals Roy Keane and Niall Quinn who fell out over Keane's infamous walkout from the Republic of Ireland squad in Saipan during their preparation for the 2002 World Cup.
I must admit that when Niall Quinn promised that, with Sunderland in real danger of facing the possibility of relegation to League 1 after a terrible start to their season, that he was going to appoint a world class manager Roy Keane was not what I expected. But maybe Quinn has a lot of foresight as what Keane has achieved in the short time he has been at Sunderland has been spectacular. They now sit on the brink of a return to the Premiership, in what in my opinion has been a more remarkable turn around than even the events that have occured in the last few weeks here in Northern Ireland. The story caught my eye as I see that local company, Boylesports, have announced a sponsorship deal with Sunderland which could be worth up to £10million over four years.
However I think that John Boyle must have got a little carried away when he stated that he "would see Sunderland as Premiership winners, I would see them as Champions League winners." No matter what success Sunderland are likely to achieve I think that in these days of the financial resources available to clubs like Chelsea that he is dreaming just a little too much. Churchill quotes springs to mind "I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else". Its seems like the bookmaker has finally found the eternal optimism that every punter gets when he places his docket down on the bookie's counter - and we know how most of them end up.
Still at least he can dream....will we be able to say the same of Sinn Fein and the DUP when they take control of our devolved Government?

Related Link
http://www.rte.ie/sport/2007/0412/sunderland1.html

Catholic Church - breaking the law - a new perspective

What an interesting interview Canon Kearney, PP of Clonallon Parish, gave to the Sunday Sequence programme broadcast on BBC Radio Ulster on 8th. April 2007. The issue covered was the right of churches to broadcast Church services on the CB band following the granting of licences by OFCOM.
After OFCOM banned church broadcasts in 1999 some Churches continued to offer this service to parishioners in breach of the law of the land. While this was, in my opinion, the correct course of action as it meant that the sick and elderly could still feel a part of the Catholic community, when Canon Kearney was asked what Clonallon parish had done after the ban of 1999 I thought his answer was very illuminating.
He pointed out that the broadcasts had not stopped after the ban was introduced and justified it by saying that in this case that it was "easier to ask for forgiveness than permission".
And maybe there is a message to all Catholics that struggle in this modern age to deal with the strict laws imposed on them by the Church - laws like sex outside of marriage, the ban on the use of contraception, divorce, homosexuality etc. Rather than feeling compelled to lead lives by the Catholic doctrine maybe each person should leads their lives exactly as they see fit and then seek forgiveness later. It does make life much easier than trying to lead life by the rules in the first place. After all it is their own Church that is leading the way in this regard.

Scumbags Rule OK

As we face into the Easter period, and quickly approach the summer season, we can look forward to the return, in greater numbers, of the scumbags to our streets at night to cause mayhem and destruction. While there will always be an element of trouble in the town it is noticably greater in periods of better weather as the opportunities for all night drinking are much greater on the beach and other areas.
While no one in their right minds would want a return to the "Troubles", and all the suffering that brought to all sides involved, it is without question that incidences of anti-social behaviour were much lower then. As well as a more constant police (and army presence)on the streets of the town, the local mischief makers would also have feared the possibility of receiving punishment beatings at the hands of a paramilitary organisation.
One of the conditions of the ending of the "Troubles" was a cessation of this type of action. But this also removed any fear the scumbags had that they may be held accountable for their actions.
We now have a situation where we have moved from a form of justice that presumed an element of guilty until proven innocent, and handed out immediate justice, to a system under the PSNI (Public Safety - Not Interested) where policing seems to disappear from the streets at night leaving it free for the stone throwers, the drunks, the druggies and the window breakers to do as they will.

Paisley - A Leap of Faith

In all the commentary that has covered the lead up to the return of devolved powers it is interesting that little of it seems to centre on the fact that the new First Minister in waiting, Dr. Paisley, has in the past proved to be the most vitriolic speaker against the Catholic faith this nation has known.
The man who has referred to at least two leaders of the Catholic Church as the anti-Christ (Pope John XXIII and Pope John Paul II) and who has called the Catholic Church the "harlot of Babylon" will be expected to lead Northern Ireland for the benefit of all its people. While Dr. Paisley's speeches were used as recruitment propaganda by the IRA it is also widely believed that Loyalists were inspired by his remarks to take action against the Catholic community.
The splits that have occured in the Republican community have been to do with the recognition of the PSNI (and the implied recognition of the Crown forces). There seems to have been no outcry over the fact that the Catholic (Republican/Nationalist) population will have to accept as their leader, which a head of Government is, a man who preached hated for their beliefs for many decades. This contrasts sharply with the splits in Unionism which are centred mainly on the fact that Dr. Paisley has seen fit to enter into a working partnership with Sinn Fein, which most Unionists view as the intwined with the IRA.
It may well be that while the Republican/Nationalist electorate always recognised that progress towards a peaceful solution(i.e. devolution) could not be achieved without the DUP, and Dr. Paisley onboard, sections of the DUP never expected, despite the many signposts which they passed, that Paisley would sit in Government with Sinn Fein. The fact remains that while Sinn Fein have prepared their support for each stage in the process towards recognition of the PSNI, the DUP support has in many ways been surprised at the speed of its acceptance of Sinn Fein as a partner fit for sharing office.
While the Catholic community have to take this leap of faith that Paisley is now a man for all the people, despite his past, it is a pity that some in the Unionist community can not do the same about Sinn Fein.

The Spring of Love 2007


There once was a girl called Ian. Now Ian lead a very sheltered life and never associated with people from the other side of the street as she came from a very strict religious background. She was her school head girl and preached to all her friends and school mates the dangers of mixing with these people.
But one day Ian met Gerry who was the leader of a big gang on the other side. Now Ian knew of Gerry's reputation as a bad boy and at first wanted nothing to do with him. But she was seduced by his dangerous reputation and his deep voice and eventually asked Gerry if she could be in a gang with Gerry's friend Martin. They agreed it would be OK if a few other smaller gangs were invited also Some of Ian's friend were a little shocked and some did not want to talk to her again. Her uncle Jim, who lived away in Europe, disowned her and told her she could not visit him again. But Ian was not worried as she knew that she would still get Jim's house when he left it.
Then Ian decided that she would like to go to the big city far away where more of the people from Gerry's family lived. There she met a man called Bertie who seduced her with his wealth and generosity. He offered to take Ian away on a holiday to see a place that he thought she might like, and he promised to lavish money on her. Ian's head was turned with all the attention she was getting and forgot all about the things she used to say about the other side. She might have lost a few friends but she was so excited. And they all lived happily ever after???????

Peace Dividend for South Down?

As the countdown towards the re-introduction of devolved Government on May 8th. seems to be progressing smoothly you do have to wonder what the benefit to South Down will be if, as expected, we end up with two ministers in the NI government. With Catriona Ruane likely to be Education minister and Margaret Ritchie as Social Development minister both will be anxious to enhance their profiles ahead of the next Westminster election of 2009 as it seems likely that they will go head to head for Eddie McGrady's seat.
While the ministry's may not have the scope of a regional development or employment to show their generosity to the region I am sure that both will be using their new positions to show their commitment to the area. There may be more pressure on the SDLP to be seen to be delivering as Ruane topped the poll in the Assembly election (even though SDLP still had a slightly higher total first preference vote)and I think that the expected promotion of Ritchie to office is an attempt by the SDLP to hold South Down in the 2009 election. Whatever the future of South Belfast the SDLP probably feel that they can hold Foyle again so South Down may be seen as its last stand to retain a position of power in the south of the country after the loss of Newry and Armagh to Conor Murphy.