Northern Ireland - A Blueprint for the rest of the world?

Bertie Ahern has called the next Dail election for 24th May. Based on the latest opinion polls the Government is likely to be comprised of some form of coalition government as no party in Ireland no longer has enough support to form a single party government. I would find it very unlikely that Fianna Fail will ever find themselves in a position whereby they have a majority of the elected TDs again. Irish voters like coalition, in my opinion, as it provides a balance within the corridors of power by not allowing one party to act as supreme overlords.
Here in Northern Ireland we are about to embark on an enforced coalition whereby the four main parties, with about 90% of the elected Stormont MLAs, form a government where positions are allocated in accordance with their success in the elections.

In advance of this Government actually taking up office on May 8th there has been a remarkable change in the relations between the parties in Northern Ireland, especially between the DUP and Sinn Fein. As well as Sinn Fein signing up to the policing boards, we have seen the DUP sidetrack the issue of the existence of the IRA Army Council as a bar to forming the Government. Martin McGuinness speaks in a Sunday Tribune interview of positive, courteous meetings with Ian Paisley and speaks of his admiration for Dr. Paisley having stood by his principles, although obviously he did not agree with them.

As well as new working relations (and the bulk of the ministries) being shared by the DUP and Sinn Fein, the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, despite their electoral disappointments of the last few years, will also have a part to play in this coalition Government. Depending on the success of their Ministers, and the exposure that their portfolios might bring them, they may hope to use the opportunities provided to help rebuild their parties. Being seen as successful within a Government department, or committee, especially as when the next elections arrive all the parties involved could be pushing manifestos which would be broadly in the centre and less to the extremes, might be seen as giving some hope to the UU and SDLP that they can now rebuild their support base. They will of course argue that the current positions of the DUP and SF are exactly those of their parties in the past.

All the positives ahead of the return of the devolved Government at Stormont do make me wonder if a form of imposed coalition is the best way to govern a country. Maybe in the future, in the context of the UK and Ireland, it should be mandatory that a government could only be formed from parties which command at least 60% of the elected representatives. This would mean in the context of the forthcoming election that a possible coalition between FF/Labour/SF or FG/Green/PD/Labour/SF/Ind.
The reason for this suggestion would be to try and engage voters in elections and politics generally. As one party would be very unlikely to ever achieve 60%, coalition would be almost certainly guaranteed. Positions would be allocated, like here, in relation to election success, but would mean more parties being involved in Government. Policies would be negotiated as per norm, but with an input from more parties, leading to a more interesting mix of policies - PD right wing ideals diluted by Labour's socialist leanings for example. As well as involving more of a mix of individuals in positions of power it might also give more prominence to the parties not involved in the government as the voice of the opposition, maybe giving it a greater chance to get its message across. In effect Alliance must be the opposition party of the Stormont assembly, with the duty of holding it to account for its decisions, which in effect would give their spoke persons the chance to debate matters on local TV and radio, in the process raising both party and individual profiles.

I think it would apply better to the last Westminster elections of 2005 where Labour, under Tony Blair, won 55.2% of the seats in the first past the post system with 35.3% of the first preference vote. Despite the unpopularity of the war in Iraq Labour won in part due to the even more mistrust of the Conservative Party. In effect two thirds of the population find themselves governed by a party they did not vote for. The 60% rule would have allowed Labour to form a government after the 2001 election, but in 2005 would have forced them into a coalition with possibly the Lib Dems. This might have assured that checks and balances were in place to police Labour policy, especially in relation to divisive issues like the management of the war in Iraq and investment in the NHS. It might also have allowed a junior Government party to be able to comment better on the cash for honours question and hold people accountable, if required. Such a forced partnership might help to counteract a certain indifference in a electorate feeling disenfranchised from being able to exercise influence on their Government, while still allowing the Tories to rebuild and re brand under Cameron.

Maybe Northern Ireland have the right idea after all, by forcing people to work together, - but time will tell.

An example to us all

So we have the spectacle of two former bitter rivals, whose previous trenchant positions divided a nation, facing up to the task of working together for the better good of their supporters. They had split because one felt that he was being mistreated and discriminated against by having to endure conditions of a lower standard than the norm. They face the possibility of great success in the next few weeks, or will their commmunity face more disappointment? There is also the possibility of great finances being available from external sources if that success is achieved. Sound familiar.
Well its Sunderland FC where former rivals Roy Keane and Niall Quinn who fell out over Keane's infamous walkout from the Republic of Ireland squad in Saipan during their preparation for the 2002 World Cup.
I must admit that when Niall Quinn promised that, with Sunderland in real danger of facing the possibility of relegation to League 1 after a terrible start to their season, that he was going to appoint a world class manager Roy Keane was not what I expected. But maybe Quinn has a lot of foresight as what Keane has achieved in the short time he has been at Sunderland has been spectacular. They now sit on the brink of a return to the Premiership, in what in my opinion has been a more remarkable turn around than even the events that have occured in the last few weeks here in Northern Ireland. The story caught my eye as I see that local company, Boylesports, have announced a sponsorship deal with Sunderland which could be worth up to £10million over four years.
However I think that John Boyle must have got a little carried away when he stated that he "would see Sunderland as Premiership winners, I would see them as Champions League winners." No matter what success Sunderland are likely to achieve I think that in these days of the financial resources available to clubs like Chelsea that he is dreaming just a little too much. Churchill quotes springs to mind "I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else". Its seems like the bookmaker has finally found the eternal optimism that every punter gets when he places his docket down on the bookie's counter - and we know how most of them end up.
Still at least he can dream....will we be able to say the same of Sinn Fein and the DUP when they take control of our devolved Government?

Related Link
http://www.rte.ie/sport/2007/0412/sunderland1.html

Paisley - A Leap of Faith

In all the commentary that has covered the lead up to the return of devolved powers it is interesting that little of it seems to centre on the fact that the new First Minister in waiting, Dr. Paisley, has in the past proved to be the most vitriolic speaker against the Catholic faith this nation has known.
The man who has referred to at least two leaders of the Catholic Church as the anti-Christ (Pope John XXIII and Pope John Paul II) and who has called the Catholic Church the "harlot of Babylon" will be expected to lead Northern Ireland for the benefit of all its people. While Dr. Paisley's speeches were used as recruitment propaganda by the IRA it is also widely believed that Loyalists were inspired by his remarks to take action against the Catholic community.
The splits that have occured in the Republican community have been to do with the recognition of the PSNI (and the implied recognition of the Crown forces). There seems to have been no outcry over the fact that the Catholic (Republican/Nationalist) population will have to accept as their leader, which a head of Government is, a man who preached hated for their beliefs for many decades. This contrasts sharply with the splits in Unionism which are centred mainly on the fact that Dr. Paisley has seen fit to enter into a working partnership with Sinn Fein, which most Unionists view as the intwined with the IRA.
It may well be that while the Republican/Nationalist electorate always recognised that progress towards a peaceful solution(i.e. devolution) could not be achieved without the DUP, and Dr. Paisley onboard, sections of the DUP never expected, despite the many signposts which they passed, that Paisley would sit in Government with Sinn Fein. The fact remains that while Sinn Fein have prepared their support for each stage in the process towards recognition of the PSNI, the DUP support has in many ways been surprised at the speed of its acceptance of Sinn Fein as a partner fit for sharing office.
While the Catholic community have to take this leap of faith that Paisley is now a man for all the people, despite his past, it is a pity that some in the Unionist community can not do the same about Sinn Fein.